Total Selected Ultimate
$105.3M
7 accident years (2019–2025)
Carried Reserves (IBNR)
$28.4M
vs. $25.1M indicated
Reserve Margin
$3.3M
13.1% redundancy
Avg. Ultimate Trend
+4.8%
annual loss cost growth
Link Ratio Heatmap — Deviation from 5-Year Weighted Average
2019
−1.2%
−2.8%
+0.4%
−0.6%
+0.2%
−0.3%
+0.1%
2020
+0.8%
−1.1%
+0.3%
+1.2%
−0.5%
2021
+1.5%
−0.4%
+0.8%
+1.8%
2022
−0.2%
+3.4%
+5.2%
2023
+4.1%
+8.6%
2024
+2.3%
2025
A AY 2022 — Accelerated
48-mo. paid 17.6% above expected. Recommend +$480K IBNR.
B AY 2023 — Tail Divergence
36-mo. running 35.8% above plan. Deficiency risk: $1.1–1.6M.
C AY 2025 — Elevated Report
Initial paid 13.7% above 5-yr avg. Monitor through 24-mo.